OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2013

Wells Fargo Championship

2013-05-02 · Quail Hollow Club

Winner
Derek Ernst
Winning score
-8
Field
147
Field strength
-0.016 SG

The 2013 Wells Fargo Championship was played at Quail Hollow Club, starting 2 May 2013. Derek Ernst won at 8 under par (280). The winning card was 67, 71, 72 and 70, and the win paid $1,206,000. David Lynn finished second, and Phil Mickelson was third. 147 players started the event. The field averaged -0.016 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 90% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the PGA Tour's published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 147. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 81 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Dgrade
Rank correlation
+0.201
Top-20 hit rate
40%
Top-10 avg model rank
27.2

Grade is this event’s percentile (25th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Rory McIlroy1st10th
Webb Simpson2nd32nd
Phil Mickelson3rd3rd
Sergio Garcia4th16th
Bo Van Pelt5th6th
Lee Westwood6th4th
Rickie Fowler7th73rd
Brendon de Jonge8th43rd
John Senden9th22nd
Ryan Moore10th6th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Derek Ernst76th1st(75)
Rickie Fowler7th73rd(+66)
Luke List77th16th(61)
Ross Fisher69th10th(59)
Scott Gardiner80th22nd(58)
David Lynn59th2nd(57)
Robert Karlsson60th4th(56)
Kevin Stadler19th73rd(+54)
Zach Johnson12th65th(+53)
Hunter Mahan20th73rd(+53)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

The venue

This event was played at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the Wells Fargo Championship in 2013?

Derek Ernst won the 2013 Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club, finishing 8 under par.

Where was the 2013 Wells Fargo Championship played?

The 2013 Wells Fargo Championship was played at Quail Hollow Club, starting 2 May 2013.

What was the winning score at the 2013 Wells Fargo Championship?

The winning score was 8 under par (280 strokes), posted by Derek Ernst.

How many players were in the Wells Fargo Championship field?

147 players started the 2013 Wells Fargo Championship. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the PGA Tour's own published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where the tour published no value, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.