OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2014-2015

Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard

2015-03-19 · Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge

Winner
Matt Every
Winning score
-19
Field
118
Field strength
+0.257 SG

The 2014-2015 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, starting 19 March 2015. Matt Every won at 19 under par (269), 1 stroke ahead of Henrik Stenson. The winning card was 68, 66, 69 and 66, and the win paid $1,134,000. Henrik Stenson finished second, and Matt Jones was third. 118 players started the event. The field averaged +0.257 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 86% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the PGA Tour's published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 118. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 69 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Dgrade
Rank correlation
+0.252
Top-20 hit rate
35%
Top-10 avg model rank
28.0

Grade is this event’s percentile (39th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Adam Scott1st35th
Rory McIlroy2nd11th
Rickie Fowler3rd29th
Jason Day4th17th
Keegan Bradley5th49th
Hideki Matsuyama6th21st
Henrik Stenson7th2nd
Webb Simpson8th43rd
Kevin Na9th6th
Zach Johnson10th9th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Kiradech Aphibarnrat67th6th(61)
D.A. Points69th17th(52)
David Lingmerth64th13th(51)
Freddie Jacobson24th69th(+45)
Keegan Bradley5th49th(+44)
Matt Every44th1st(43)
Hudson Swafford54th11th(43)
Carlos Ortiz63rd21st(42)
Morgan Hoffmann43rd4th(39)
Sam Saunders68th29th(39)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

The venue

This event was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard in 2014-2015?

Matt Every won the 2014-2015 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, finishing 19 under par.

Where was the 2014-2015 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard played?

The 2014-2015 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, starting 19 March 2015.

What was the winning score at the 2014-2015 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard?

The winning score was 19 under par (269 strokes), posted by Matt Every.

How many players were in the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard field?

118 players started the 2014-2015 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the PGA Tour's own published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where the tour published no value, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.