OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2015-2016

RBC Heritage

2016-04-14 · Harbour Town Golf Links

Winner
Branden Grace
Winning score
-9
Field
131
Field strength
+0.103 SG

The 2015-2016 RBC Heritage was played at Harbour Town Golf Links, starting 14 April 2016. Branden Grace won at 9 under par (275), 2 strokes ahead of Luke Donald. The winning card was 66, 74, 69 and 66, and the win paid $1,062,000. Luke Donald and Russell Knox tied for second. 131 players started the event. The field averaged +0.103 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 90% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the PGA Tour's published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 131. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 82 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Cgrade
Rank correlation
+0.254
Top-20 hit rate
40%
Top-10 avg model rank
28.1

Grade is this event’s percentile (40th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Jason Day1st23rd
Matt Kuchar2nd9th
Justin Thomas3rd75th
Zach Johnson4th33rd
Kevin Na5th4th
Russell Knox6th2nd
Webb Simpson7th66th
Bill Haas8th14th
Ryan Palmer9th71st
Jason Dufner10th54th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Justin Thomas3rd75th(+72)
Tyler Aldridge81st14th(67)
Ryan Palmer9th71st(+62)
Whee Kim67th6th(61)
Webb Simpson7th66th(+59)
Kevin Kisner12th69th(+57)
Bryson DeChambeau61st4th(57)
Ricky Barnes66th9th(57)
Ernie Els71st14th(57)
Jason Bohn14th69th(+55)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

The venue

This event was played at Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, South Carolina, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the RBC Heritage in 2015-2016?

Branden Grace won the 2015-2016 RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links, finishing 9 under par.

Where was the 2015-2016 RBC Heritage played?

The 2015-2016 RBC Heritage was played at Harbour Town Golf Links, starting 14 April 2016.

What was the winning score at the 2015-2016 RBC Heritage?

The winning score was 9 under par (275 strokes), posted by Branden Grace.

How many players were in the RBC Heritage field?

131 players started the 2015-2016 RBC Heritage. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the PGA Tour's own published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where the tour published no value, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.