OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2015-2016

AT&T Byron Nelson

2016-05-19 · TPC Four Seasons Resort

Winner
Sergio Garcia
Winning score
-15
Field
145
Field strength
-0.004 SG

The 2015-2016 AT&T Byron Nelson was played at TPC Four Seasons Resort, starting 19 May 2016. Sergio Garcia won at 15 under par (265). The winning card was 63, 66, 68 and 68, and the win paid $1,314,000. Brooks Koepka finished second, and Matt Kuchar was third. 145 players started the event. The field averaged -0.004 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 81% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the PGA Tour's published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 145. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 80 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Bgrade
Rank correlation
+0.371
Top-20 hit rate
60%
Top-10 avg model rank
26.9

Grade is this event’s percentile (76th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Jordan Spieth1st18th
Matt Kuchar2nd3rd
Zach Johnson3rd66th
Brooks Koepka4th2nd
Dustin Johnson5th12th
Sergio Garcia6th1st
Jimmy Walker7th24th
Jason Dufner8th24th
Charley Hoffman9th12th
Danny Lee10th18th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Steve Marino80th12th(68)
Zach Johnson3rd66th(+63)
Robert Garrigus67th4th(63)
Wes Roach74th18th(56)
Hiroshi Iwata76th24th(52)
Steven Bowditch32nd82nd(+50)
Michael Thompson63rd18th(45)
Charl Schwartzel15th58th(+43)
Greg Owen36th79th(+43)
Sung Kang77th34th(43)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

The venue

This event was played at TPC Four Seasons Resort in Irving, Texas, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the AT&T Byron Nelson in 2015-2016?

Sergio Garcia won the 2015-2016 AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Four Seasons Resort, finishing 15 under par.

Where was the 2015-2016 AT&T Byron Nelson played?

The 2015-2016 AT&T Byron Nelson was played at TPC Four Seasons Resort, starting 19 May 2016.

What was the winning score at the 2015-2016 AT&T Byron Nelson?

The winning score was 15 under par (265 strokes), posted by Sergio Garcia.

How many players were in the AT&T Byron Nelson field?

145 players started the 2015-2016 AT&T Byron Nelson. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the PGA Tour's own published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where the tour published no value, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.