OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2015-2016

BMW Championship

2016-09-08 · Crooked Stick GC

Winner
Dustin Johnson
Winning score
-23
Field
69
Field strength
+0.657 SG

The 2015-2016 BMW Championship was played at Crooked Stick GC, starting 8 September 2016. Dustin Johnson won at 23 under par (265), 3 strokes ahead of Paul Casey. The winning card was 67, 63, 68 and 67, and the win paid $1,530,000. Paul Casey finished second, and Roberto Castro was third. 69 players started the event. The field averaged +0.657 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the PGA Tour's published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 69. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 68 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Cgrade
Rank correlation
+0.332
Top-20 hit rate
45%
Top-10 avg model rank
20.7

Grade is this event’s percentile (65th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Rory McIlroy1st42nd
Jordan Spieth2nd9th
Justin Rose3rd24th
Bubba Watson4th20th
Hideki Matsuyama5th24th
Dustin Johnson6th1st
Brooks Koepka7th32nd
Sergio Garcia8th47th
Matt Kuchar9th4th
Zach Johnson10th42nd

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Roberto Castro52nd3rd(49)
Rickie Fowler11th59th(+48)
Ryan Moore18th64th(+46)
Jhonattan Vegas67th24th(43)
Rory McIlroy1st42nd(+41)
Sergio Garcia8th47th(+39)
Si Woo Kim59th20th(39)
Jason Dufner22nd60th(+38)
James Hahn60th24th(36)
Brendan Steele29th64th(+35)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

The venue

This event was played at Crooked Stick GC in Carmel, Indiana, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the BMW Championship in 2015-2016?

Dustin Johnson won the 2015-2016 BMW Championship at Crooked Stick GC, finishing 23 under par.

Where was the 2015-2016 BMW Championship played?

The 2015-2016 BMW Championship was played at Crooked Stick GC, starting 8 September 2016.

What was the winning score at the 2015-2016 BMW Championship?

The winning score was 23 under par (265 strokes), posted by Dustin Johnson.

How many players were in the BMW Championship field?

69 players started the 2015-2016 BMW Championship. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the PGA Tour's own published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where the tour published no value, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.