OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2015-2016

Valero Texas Open

2016-04-21 · TPC San Antonio - The Oaks Course

Winner
Charley Hoffman
Winning score
-12
Field
145
Field strength
+0.017 SG

The 2015-2016 Valero Texas Open was played at TPC San Antonio - The Oaks Course, starting 21 April 2016. Charley Hoffman won at 12 under par (276), 1 stroke ahead of Patrick Reed. The winning card was 66, 71, 70 and 69, and the win paid $1,116,000. Patrick Reed finished second, and Chad Collins was third. 145 players started the event. The field averaged +0.017 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 79% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the PGA Tour's published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 145. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 78 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Dgrade
Rank correlation
+0.210
Top-20 hit rate
50%
Top-10 avg model rank
27.1

Grade is this event’s percentile (27th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Matt Kuchar1st42nd
Zach Johnson2nd29th
Ryan Palmer3rd4th
Brendan Steele4th13th
Patrick Reed5th2nd
Charley Hoffman6th1st
Luke Donald7th13th
Jerry Kelly8th65th
Francesco Molinari9th42nd
Kevin Chappell10th4th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Martin Piller73rd4th(69)
Scott Stallings76th13th(63)
Freddie Jacobson20th80th(+60)
Harold Varner III67th9th(58)
Jerry Kelly8th65th(+57)
Peter Malnati68th13th(55)
George McNeill18th72nd(+54)
Michael Kim69th21st(48)
John Huh27th72nd(+45)
Matt Kuchar1st42nd(+41)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

The venue

This event was played at TPC San Antonio - The Oaks Course in San Antonio, Texas, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the Valero Texas Open in 2015-2016?

Charley Hoffman won the 2015-2016 Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio - The Oaks Course, finishing 12 under par.

Where was the 2015-2016 Valero Texas Open played?

The 2015-2016 Valero Texas Open was played at TPC San Antonio - The Oaks Course, starting 21 April 2016.

What was the winning score at the 2015-2016 Valero Texas Open?

The winning score was 12 under par (276 strokes), posted by Charley Hoffman.

How many players were in the Valero Texas Open field?

145 players started the 2015-2016 Valero Texas Open. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the PGA Tour's own published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where the tour published no value, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.