OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2015-2016

The Open Championship

2016-07-14 · Royal Troon

Winner
Henrik Stenson
Winning score
-20
Field
156
Field strength
+0.567 SG

The 2015-2016 The Open Championship was played at Royal Troon, starting 14 July 2016. Henrik Stenson won at 20 under par (264), 3 strokes ahead of Phil Mickelson. The winning card was 68, 65, 68 and 63, and the win paid $1,549,590. Phil Mickelson finished second, and J.B. Holmes was third. 156 players started the event. The field averaged +0.567 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 45% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the PGA Tour's published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 156. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 81 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Bgrade
Rank correlation
+0.351
Top-20 hit rate
35%
Top-10 avg model rank
24.4

Grade is this event’s percentile (70th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Jordan Spieth1st30th
Rory McIlroy2nd5th
Jason Day3rd22nd
Henrik Stenson4th1st
Steve Stricker5th4th
Justin Rose6th22nd
Bubba Watson7th39th
Matt Kuchar8th46th
Jim Furyk9th59th
Zach Johnson10th12th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Tyrrell Hatton68th5th(63)
Andrew Johnston69th8th(61)
Miguel Angel Jiménez73rd18th(55)
Andy Sullivan65th12th(53)
Darren Clarke81st30th(51)
Jim Furyk9th59th(+50)
Charley Hoffman28th77th(+49)
Thongchai Jaidee71st22nd(49)
Matthew Southgate59th12th(47)
David Howell67th22nd(45)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

The venue

This event was played at Royal Troon in Troon, South Ayrshire, SCO. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the The Open Championship in 2015-2016?

Henrik Stenson won the 2015-2016 The Open Championship at Royal Troon, finishing 20 under par.

Where was the 2015-2016 The Open Championship played?

The 2015-2016 The Open Championship was played at Royal Troon, starting 14 July 2016.

What was the winning score at the 2015-2016 The Open Championship?

The winning score was 20 under par (264 strokes), posted by Henrik Stenson.

How many players were in the The Open Championship field?

156 players started the 2015-2016 The Open Championship. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the PGA Tour's own published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where the tour published no value, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.