OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2016-2017

CareerBuilder Challenge

2017-01-19 · Pete Dye Stadium Course

Winner
Hudson Swafford
Winning score
-20
Field
154
Field strength
+0.002 SG

The 2016-2017 CareerBuilder Challenge was played at Pete Dye Stadium Course, starting 19 January 2017. Hudson Swafford won at 20 under par (268), 1 stroke ahead of Adam Hadwin. The winning card was 65, 65, 71 and 67, and the win paid $1,044,000. Adam Hadwin finished second, and Brian Harman and Bud Cauley tied for third. 154 players started the event. The field averaged +0.002 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 86% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the PGA Tour's published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 154. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 76 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Cgrade
Rank correlation
+0.290
Top-20 hit rate
45%
Top-10 avg model rank
30.8

Grade is this event’s percentile (50th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Phil Mickelson1st21st
Paul Casey2nd58th
Kevin Na3rd70th
Jason Dufner4th25th
Patrick Reed5th12th
Webb Simpson6th66th
Bill Haas7th17th
Chez Reavie8th12th
Francesco Molinari9th12th
Charles Howell III10th12th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Kevin Na3rd70th(+67)
Dominic Bozzelli72nd5th(67)
Webb Simpson6th66th(+60)
Richy Werenski67th9th(58)
Paul Casey2nd58th(+56)
Grayson Murray62nd12th(50)
Brian Campbell74th25th(49)
Scott Stallings55th8th(47)
Bud Cauley43rd3rd(40)
Roberto Castro12th50th(+38)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

The venue

This event was played at Pete Dye Stadium Course in La Quinta, California, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the CareerBuilder Challenge in 2016-2017?

Hudson Swafford won the 2016-2017 CareerBuilder Challenge at Pete Dye Stadium Course, finishing 20 under par.

Where was the 2016-2017 CareerBuilder Challenge played?

The 2016-2017 CareerBuilder Challenge was played at Pete Dye Stadium Course, starting 19 January 2017.

What was the winning score at the 2016-2017 CareerBuilder Challenge?

The winning score was 20 under par (268 strokes), posted by Hudson Swafford.

How many players were in the CareerBuilder Challenge field?

154 players started the 2016-2017 CareerBuilder Challenge. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the PGA Tour's own published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where the tour published no value, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.