OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2016-2017

Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard

2017-03-16 · Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge

Winner
Marc Leishman
Winning score
-11
Field
118
Field strength
+0.268 SG

The 2016-2017 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, starting 16 March 2017. Marc Leishman won at 11 under par (277), 1 stroke ahead of Charley Hoffman. The winning card was 71, 66, 71 and 69, and the win paid $1,566,000. Charley Hoffman and Kevin Kisner tied for second. 118 players started the event. The field averaged +0.268 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 84% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the PGA Tour's published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 118. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 71 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Cgrade
Rank correlation
+0.345
Top-20 hit rate
40%
Top-10 avg model rank
21.5

Grade is this event’s percentile (68th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Hideki Matsuyama1st45th
Rickie Fowler2nd12th
Rory McIlroy3rd4th
Jason Day4th23rd
Justin Rose5th13th
Paul Casey6th41st
Ryan Moore7th34th
Louis Oosthuizen8th28th
Bubba Watson9th34th
Brandt Snedeker10th28th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Zach Johnson12th66th(+54)
Jeunghun Wang71st23rd(48)
Matt Fitzpatrick60th13th(47)
Greg Chalmers62nd17th(45)
Hideki Matsuyama1st45th(+44)
Charley Hoffman45th2nd(43)
Brandon Hagy67th28th(39)
Charles Howell III20th56th(+36)
David Lingmerth36th72nd(+36)
Tyrrell Hatton40th4th(36)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

The venue

This event was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard in 2016-2017?

Marc Leishman won the 2016-2017 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, finishing 11 under par.

Where was the 2016-2017 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard played?

The 2016-2017 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, starting 16 March 2017.

What was the winning score at the 2016-2017 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?

The winning score was 11 under par (277 strokes), posted by Marc Leishman.

How many players were in the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard field?

118 players started the 2016-2017 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the PGA Tour's own published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where the tour published no value, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.