OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2016-2017

AT&T Byron Nelson

2017-05-18 · TPC Four Seasons Resort

Winner
Billy Horschel
Winning score
-12
Field
152
Field strength
0 SG

The 2016-2017 AT&T Byron Nelson was played at TPC Four Seasons Resort, starting 18 May 2017. Billy Horschel won at 12 under par (268). The winning card was 68, 65, 66 and 69, and the win paid $1,350,000. Jason Day finished second, and James Hahn was third. 152 players started the event. The field averaged 0 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 83% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the PGA Tour's published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 152. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 73 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Bgrade
Rank correlation
+0.426
Top-20 hit rate
50%
Top-10 avg model rank
23.5

Grade is this event’s percentile (87th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Dustin Johnson1st13th
Jason Day2nd2nd
Matt Kuchar3rd9th
Sergio Garcia4th20th
Brooks Koepka5th50th
Louis Oosthuizen6th18th
Marc Leishman7th13th
Jason Dufner8th13th
Ryan Palmer9th27th
Gary Woodland10th40th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Joel Dahmen73rd9th(64)
Byeong Hun An51st5th(46)
Brooks Koepka5th50th(+45)
J.J. Henry72nd27th(45)
D.A. Points29th73rd(+44)
Bob Estes27th70th(+43)
Grayson Murray70th27th(43)
Kevin Tway61st20th(41)
Ryan Armour62nd27th(35)
Spencer Levin32nd66th(+34)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

The venue

This event was played at TPC Four Seasons Resort in Irving, Texas, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the AT&T Byron Nelson in 2016-2017?

Billy Horschel won the 2016-2017 AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Four Seasons Resort, finishing 12 under par.

Where was the 2016-2017 AT&T Byron Nelson played?

The 2016-2017 AT&T Byron Nelson was played at TPC Four Seasons Resort, starting 18 May 2017.

What was the winning score at the 2016-2017 AT&T Byron Nelson?

The winning score was 12 under par (268 strokes), posted by Billy Horschel.

How many players were in the AT&T Byron Nelson field?

152 players started the 2016-2017 AT&T Byron Nelson. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the PGA Tour's own published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where the tour published no value, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.