OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2016-2017

PGA Championship

2017-08-10 · Quail Hollow Club

Winner
Justin Thomas
Winning score
-8
Field
156
Field strength
+0.564 SG

The 2016-2017 PGA Championship was played at Quail Hollow Club, starting 10 August 2017. Justin Thomas won at 8 under par (276), 2 strokes ahead of Francesco Molinari. The winning card was 73, 66, 69 and 68, and the win paid $1,890,000. Francesco Molinari, Louis Oosthuizen and Patrick Reed tied for second. 156 players started the event. The field averaged +0.564 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 60% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the PGA Tour's published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 156. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 75 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Agrade
Rank correlation
+0.463
Top-20 hit rate
65%
Top-10 avg model rank
15.4

Grade is this event’s percentile (93rd) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Rory McIlroy1st22nd
Hideki Matsuyama2nd5th
Jason Day3rd9th
Jordan Spieth4th28th
Rickie Fowler5th5th
Henrik Stenson6th13th
Adam Scott7th61st
Dustin Johnson8th13th
Paul Casey9th13th
Matt Kuchar10th9th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Chris Stroud68th9th(59)
Adam Scott7th61st(+54)
Jordan Smith59th9th(50)
Richard Sterne75th28th(47)
Charles Howell III31st73rd(+42)
Grayson Murray64th22nd(42)
Scott Brown54th13th(41)
James Hahn53rd13th(40)
Russell Henley32nd71st(+39)
Steve Stricker16th54th(+38)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

The venue

This event was played at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the PGA Championship in 2016-2017?

Justin Thomas won the 2016-2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Club, finishing 8 under par.

Where was the 2016-2017 PGA Championship played?

The 2016-2017 PGA Championship was played at Quail Hollow Club, starting 10 August 2017.

What was the winning score at the 2016-2017 PGA Championship?

The winning score was 8 under par (276 strokes), posted by Justin Thomas.

How many players were in the PGA Championship field?

156 players started the 2016-2017 PGA Championship. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the PGA Tour's own published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where the tour published no value, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.