OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2016-2017

Hero World Challenge

2016-12-01 · Albany GC

Winner
Hideki Matsuyama
Winning score
-18
Field
18
Field strength
+0.987 SG

The 2016-2017 Hero World Challenge was played at Albany GC, starting 1 December 2016. Hideki Matsuyama won at 18 under par (270), 2 strokes ahead of Henrik Stenson. The winning card was 65, 67, 65 and 73, and the win paid $1,000,000. Henrik Stenson finished second, and Dustin Johnson, Matt Kuchar and Rickie Fowler tied for third. 18 players started the event. The field averaged +0.987 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 89% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the PGA Tour's published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 18. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 17 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Agrade
Rank correlation
+0.644
Top-8 hit rate
88%
Top-10 avg model rank
6.9

Grade is this event’s percentile (100th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Jordan Spieth1st6th
Henrik Stenson2nd2nd
Hideki Matsuyama3rd1st
Bubba Watson4th6th
Matt Kuchar5th3rd
Rickie Fowler6th3rd
Brooks Koepka7th13th
Dustin Johnson8th3rd
Russell Knox9th16th
Tiger Woods10th15th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Russell Knox9th16th(+7)
Brandt Snedeker13th6th(7)
Louis Oosthuizen16th9th(7)
Brooks Koepka7th13th(+6)
Jordan Spieth1st6th(+5)
Dustin Johnson8th3rd(5)
Tiger Woods10th15th(+5)
J.B. Holmes15th11th(4)
Rickie Fowler6th3rd(3)
Hideki Matsuyama3rd1st(2)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

The venue

This event was played at Albany GC in Albany, BAH. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the Hero World Challenge in 2016-2017?

Hideki Matsuyama won the 2016-2017 Hero World Challenge at Albany GC, finishing 18 under par.

Where was the 2016-2017 Hero World Challenge played?

The 2016-2017 Hero World Challenge was played at Albany GC, starting 1 December 2016.

What was the winning score at the 2016-2017 Hero World Challenge?

The winning score was 18 under par (270 strokes), posted by Hideki Matsuyama.

How many players were in the Hero World Challenge field?

18 players started the 2016-2017 Hero World Challenge. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the PGA Tour's own published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where the tour published no value, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.