OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2017-2018

Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard

2018-03-15 · Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge

Winner
Rory McIlroy
Winning score
-18
Field
116
Field strength
+0.346 SG

The 2017-2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, starting 15 March 2018. Rory McIlroy won at 18 under par (270), 3 strokes ahead of Bryson DeChambeau. The winning card was 69, 70, 67 and 64, and the win paid $1,602,000. Bryson DeChambeau finished second, and Justin Rose was third. 116 players started the event. The field averaged +0.346 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 84% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the PGA Tour's published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 116. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 76 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Bgrade
Rank correlation
+0.419
Top-20 hit rate
55%
Top-10 avg model rank
16.3

Grade is this event’s percentile (85th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Rickie Fowler1st14th
Henrik Stenson2nd4th
Tiger Woods3rd5th
Justin Rose4th3rd
Hideki Matsuyama5th49th
Francesco Molinari6th26th
Marc Leishman7th7th
Jason Day8th22nd
Kevin Na9th36th
Brian Harman10th54th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Patrick Rodgers70th7th(63)
Sam Horsfield74th14th(60)
Grayson Murray63rd14th(49)
Hideki Matsuyama5th49th(+44)
Brian Harman10th54th(+44)
Bryson DeChambeau45th2nd(43)
Talor Gooch69th26th(43)
Lucas Glover11th49th(+38)
Hudson Swafford37th75th(+38)
Bubba Watson29th66th(+37)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

The venue

This event was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard in 2017-2018?

Rory McIlroy won the 2017-2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, finishing 18 under par.

Where was the 2017-2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard played?

The 2017-2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, starting 15 March 2018.

What was the winning score at the 2017-2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?

The winning score was 18 under par (270 strokes), posted by Rory McIlroy.

How many players were in the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard field?

116 players started the 2017-2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the PGA Tour's own published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where the tour published no value, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.