OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2017-2018

Quicken Loans National

2018-06-28 · TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm

Winner
Francesco Molinari
Winning score
-21
Field
120
Field strength
+0.012 SG

The 2017-2018 Quicken Loans National was played at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm, starting 28 June 2018. Francesco Molinari won at 21 under par (259), 8 strokes ahead of Ryan Armour. The winning card was 67, 65, 65 and 62, and the win paid $1,278,000. Ryan Armour finished second, and Sung Kang was third. 120 players started the event. The field averaged +0.012 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 93% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the PGA Tour's published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 120. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 74 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Dgrade
Rank correlation
+0.189
Top-20 hit rate
35%
Top-10 avg model rank
29.4

Grade is this event’s percentile (21st) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Rickie Fowler1st12th
Tiger Woods2nd4th
Marc Leishman3rd13th
Francesco Molinari4th1st
Kyle Stanley5th32nd
Charles Howell III6th17th
Gary Woodland7th53rd
Kevin Na8th64th
Jamie Lovemark9th74th
Byeong Hun An10th41st

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Jamie Lovemark9th74th(+65)
Bill Haas12th71st(+59)
Kevin Na8th64th(+56)
Stephan Jaeger69th13th(56)
Abraham Ancer53rd4th(49)
Bronson Burgoon55th6th(49)
Kevin Tway26th73rd(+47)
Gary Woodland7th53rd(+46)
John Huh19th64th(+45)
Dylan Meyer62nd17th(45)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

The venue

This event was played at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm in Potomac, Maryland, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the Quicken Loans National in 2017-2018?

Francesco Molinari won the 2017-2018 Quicken Loans National at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm, finishing 21 under par.

Where was the 2017-2018 Quicken Loans National played?

The 2017-2018 Quicken Loans National was played at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm, starting 28 June 2018.

What was the winning score at the 2017-2018 Quicken Loans National?

The winning score was 21 under par (259 strokes), posted by Francesco Molinari.

How many players were in the Quicken Loans National field?

120 players started the 2017-2018 Quicken Loans National. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the PGA Tour's own published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where the tour published no value, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.