OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2017-2018

Valspar Championship

2018-03-08 · Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club - Copperhead Course

Winner
Paul Casey
Winning score
-10
Field
150
Field strength
+0.184 SG

The 2017-2018 Valspar Championship was played at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club - Copperhead Course, starting 8 March 2018. Paul Casey won at 10 under par (274), 1 stroke ahead of Patrick Reed. The winning card was 70, 68, 71 and 65, and the win paid $1,170,000. Patrick Reed and Tiger Woods tied for second. 150 players started the event. The field averaged +0.184 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 82% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the PGA Tour's published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 150. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 78 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Agrade
Rank correlation
+0.454
Top-20 hit rate
70%
Top-10 avg model rank
15.9

Grade is this event’s percentile (92nd) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Justin Rose1st5th
Paul Casey2nd1st
Louis Oosthuizen3rd16th
Matt Kuchar4th40th
Sergio Garcia5th4th
Tiger Woods6th2nd
Webb Simpson7th8th
Lucas Glover8th74th
Steve Stricker9th12th
Patrick Reed10th2nd

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Lucas Glover8th74th(+66)
T.J. Vogel76th16th(60)
Corey Conners67th16th(51)
Abraham Ancer66th16th(50)
Trey Mullinax53rd8th(45)
Rory Sabbatini49th5th(44)
Ryan Blaum60th16th(44)
Kelly Kraft75th31st(44)
Sam Burns55th12th(43)
Blayne Barber59th16th(43)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

The venue

This event was played at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club - Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor, Florida, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the Valspar Championship in 2017-2018?

Paul Casey won the 2017-2018 Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club - Copperhead Course, finishing 10 under par.

Where was the 2017-2018 Valspar Championship played?

The 2017-2018 Valspar Championship was played at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club - Copperhead Course, starting 8 March 2018.

What was the winning score at the 2017-2018 Valspar Championship?

The winning score was 10 under par (274 strokes), posted by Paul Casey.

How many players were in the Valspar Championship field?

150 players started the 2017-2018 Valspar Championship. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the PGA Tour's own published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where the tour published no value, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.