Tournaments / 2018-2019
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard
2019-03-07 · Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge
- Winner
- Francesco Molinari
- Winning score
- -12
- Field
- 124
- Field strength
- +0.233 SG
The 2018-2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, starting 7 March 2019. Francesco Molinari won at 12 under par (276), 2 strokes ahead of Matt Fitzpatrick. The winning card was 69, 70, 73 and 64, and the win paid $1,638,000. Matt Fitzpatrick finished second, and Rafa Cabrera Bello, Sungjae Im and Tommy Fleetwood tied for third. 124 players started the event. The field averaged +0.233 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 85% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the PGA Tour's published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.
Final leaderboard
Top 20 of 124. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.
- Francesco Molinari
- Pos
- 1
- R1
- 69
- R2
- 70
- R3
- 73
- R4
- 64
- Total
- 276
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Pos
- 2
- R1
- 70
- R2
- 70
- R3
- 67
- R4
- 71
- Total
- 278
- Rafa Cabrera Bello
- Pos
- T3
- R1
- 65
- R2
- 75
- R3
- 70
- R4
- 69
- Total
- 279
- Sungjae Im
- Pos
- T3
- R1
- 71
- R2
- 69
- R3
- 71
- R4
- 68
- Total
- 279
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Pos
- T3
- R1
- 69
- R2
- 66
- R3
- 76
- R4
- 68
- Total
- 279
- Keith Mitchell
- Pos
- T6
- R1
- 71
- R2
- 68
- R3
- 75
- R4
- 66
- Total
- 280
- Matt Wallace
- Pos
- T6
- R1
- 71
- R2
- 69
- R3
- 69
- R4
- 71
- Total
- 280
- Rory McIlroy
- Pos
- T6
- R1
- 72
- R2
- 70
- R3
- 66
- R4
- 72
- Total
- 280
- Sung Kang
- Pos
- T6
- R1
- 69
- R2
- 72
- R3
- 71
- R4
- 68
- Total
- 280
- Adam Long
- Pos
- T10
- R1
- 74
- R2
- 71
- R3
- 69
- R4
- 67
- Total
- 281
- Byeong Hun An
- Pos
- T10
- R1
- 72
- R2
- 72
- R3
- 69
- R4
- 68
- Total
- 281
- Jason Kokrak
- Pos
- T10
- R1
- 70
- R2
- 73
- R3
- 68
- R4
- 70
- Total
- 281
- Lucas Glover
- Pos
- T10
- R1
- 70
- R2
- 71
- R3
- 71
- R4
- 69
- Total
- 281
- Luke List
- Pos
- T10
- R1
- 70
- R2
- 72
- R3
- 68
- R4
- 71
- Total
- 281
- Charles Howell III
- Pos
- T15
- R1
- 74
- R2
- 67
- R3
- 69
- R4
- 72
- Total
- 282
- Chris Kirk
- Pos
- T15
- R1
- 71
- R2
- 73
- R3
- 66
- R4
- 72
- Total
- 282
- Aaron Baddeley
- Pos
- T17
- R1
- 70
- R2
- 70
- R3
- 69
- R4
- 74
- Total
- 283
- Brendan Steele
- Pos
- T17
- R1
- 70
- R2
- 71
- R3
- 72
- R4
- 70
- Total
- 283
- Bubba Watson
- Pos
- T17
- R1
- 68
- R2
- 72
- R3
- 71
- R4
- 72
- Total
- 283
- Chesson Hadley
- Pos
- T17
- R1
- 71
- R2
- 71
- R3
- 71
- R4
- 70
- Total
- 283
Model score
Backtest · reconstructedOur course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 70 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.
- Rank correlation
- +0.176
- Top-20 hit rate
- 40%
- Top-10 avg model rank
- 30.4
Grade is this event’s percentile (19th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.
Who the model liked
Its top 10, and where they finished.
| Player | Model | Finish |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Rose | 1st | 63rd |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 2nd | 3rd |
| Rickie Fowler | 3rd | 40th |
| Rory McIlroy | 4th | 6th |
| Francesco Molinari | 5th | 1st |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 6th | 33rd |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 7th | 46th |
| Henrik Stenson | 8th | 17th |
| Rafa Cabrera Bello | 9th | 3rd |
| Ian Poulter | 10th | 23rd |
Where it was most wrong
Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.
| Player | Model | Finish |
|---|---|---|
| Sung Kang | 69th | 6th(−63) |
| Justin Rose | 1st | 63rd(+62) |
| Adam Long | 62nd | 10th(−52) |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 53rd | 2nd(−51) |
| Matt Wallace | 55th | 6th(−49) |
| Roger Sloan | 70th | 23rd(−47) |
| Sungjae Im | 46th | 3rd(−43) |
| Ryan Blaum | 60th | 17th(−43) |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 7th | 46th(+39) |
| Patrick Reed | 11th | 50th(+39) |
One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.
The venue
This event was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.
Common questions
Who won the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard in 2018-2019?
- Francesco Molinari won the 2018-2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, finishing 12 under par.
Where was the 2018-2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard played?
- The 2018-2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, starting 7 March 2019.
What was the winning score at the 2018-2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?
- The winning score was 12 under par (276 strokes), posted by Francesco Molinari.
How many players were in the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard field?
- 124 players started the 2018-2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.
Where these numbers come from
Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the PGA Tour's own published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where the tour published no value, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.