OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2018-2019

THE NORTHERN TRUST

2019-08-08 · Liberty National Golf Club

Winner
Patrick Reed
Winning score
-16
Field
121
Field strength
+0.489 SG

The 2018-2019 THE NORTHERN TRUST was played at Liberty National Golf Club, starting 8 August 2019. Patrick Reed won at 16 under par (268), 1 stroke ahead of Abraham Ancer. The winning card was 66, 66, 67 and 69, and the win paid $1,665,000. Abraham Ancer finished second, and Harold Varner III and Jon Rahm tied for third. 121 players started the event. The field averaged +0.489 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 96% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the PGA Tour's published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 121. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 84 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Cgrade
Rank correlation
+0.275
Top-20 hit rate
50%
Top-10 avg model rank
23.2

Grade is this event’s percentile (47th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Justin Rose1st10th
Dustin Johnson2nd24th
Justin Thomas3rd12th
Tommy Fleetwood4th43rd
Brooks Koepka5th30th
Webb Simpson6th18th
Rory McIlroy7th6th
Patrick Cantlay8th12th
Francesco Molinari9th82nd
Hideki Matsuyama10th30th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Francesco Molinari9th82nd(+73)
Troy Merritt78th12th(66)
Harold Varner III66th3rd(63)
Cameron Champ80th21st(59)
Wyndham Clark76th18th(58)
Kevin Na21st77th(+56)
Adam Schenk79th24th(55)
Kevin Tway72nd24th(48)
Abraham Ancer49th2nd(47)
Kyle Stanley26th71st(+45)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

The venue

This event was played at Liberty National Golf Club in Jersey City, New Jersey, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the THE NORTHERN TRUST in 2018-2019?

Patrick Reed won the 2018-2019 THE NORTHERN TRUST at Liberty National Golf Club, finishing 16 under par.

Where was the 2018-2019 THE NORTHERN TRUST played?

The 2018-2019 THE NORTHERN TRUST was played at Liberty National Golf Club, starting 8 August 2019.

What was the winning score at the 2018-2019 THE NORTHERN TRUST?

The winning score was 16 under par (268 strokes), posted by Patrick Reed.

How many players were in the THE NORTHERN TRUST field?

121 players started the 2018-2019 THE NORTHERN TRUST. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the PGA Tour's own published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where the tour published no value, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.