OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2018-2019

Hero World Challenge

2018-11-29 · Albany GC

Winner
Jon Rahm
Winning score
-20
Field
18
Field strength
+1.001 SG

The 2018-2019 Hero World Challenge was played at Albany GC, starting 29 November 2018. Jon Rahm won at 20 under par (268), 4 strokes ahead of Tony Finau. The winning card was 71, 63, 69 and 65, and the win paid $1,000,000. Tony Finau finished second, and Justin Rose was third. 18 players started the event. The field averaged +1.001 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 94% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the PGA Tour's published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 18. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 18 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Cgrade
Rank correlation
+0.257
Top-9 hit rate
67%
Top-10 avg model rank
8.5

Grade is this event’s percentile (42nd) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Rickie Fowler1st5th
Dustin Johnson2nd7th
Justin Rose3rd3rd
Tiger Woods4th17th
Justin Thomas5th12th
Hideki Matsuyama6th18th
Jon Rahm7th1st
Henrik Stenson8th4th
Tony Finau9th2nd
Patrick Cantlay10th5th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Tiger Woods4th17th(+13)
Hideki Matsuyama6th18th(+12)
Alex Noren18th8th(10)
Justin Thomas5th12th(+7)
Tony Finau9th2nd(7)
Jon Rahm7th1st(6)
Xander Schauffele14th8th(6)
Dustin Johnson2nd7th(+5)
Patrick Cantlay10th5th(5)
Jason Day11th16th(+5)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

The venue

This event was played at Albany GC in Albany, BAH. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the Hero World Challenge in 2018-2019?

Jon Rahm won the 2018-2019 Hero World Challenge at Albany GC, finishing 20 under par.

Where was the 2018-2019 Hero World Challenge played?

The 2018-2019 Hero World Challenge was played at Albany GC, starting 29 November 2018.

What was the winning score at the 2018-2019 Hero World Challenge?

The winning score was 20 under par (268 strokes), posted by Jon Rahm.

How many players were in the Hero World Challenge field?

18 players started the 2018-2019 Hero World Challenge. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the PGA Tour's own published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where the tour published no value, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.