OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2019-2020

Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard

2020-03-05 · Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge

Winner
Tyrrell Hatton
Winning score
-4
Field
123
Field strength
+0.247 SG

The 2019-2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, starting 5 March 2020. Tyrrell Hatton won at 4 under par (284), 1 stroke ahead of Marc Leishman. The winning card was 68, 69, 73 and 74, and the win paid $1,674,000. Marc Leishman finished second, and Sungjae Im was third. 123 players started the event. The field averaged +0.247 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 87% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the PGA Tour's published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 123. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 69 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Cgrade
Rank correlation
+0.277
Top-20 hit rate
45%
Top-10 avg model rank
19.5

Grade is this event’s percentile (47th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Rory McIlroy1st5th
Hideki Matsuyama2nd56th
Sungjae Im3rd3rd
Brooks Koepka4th47th
Rickie Fowler5th18th
Xander Schauffele6th24th
Bryson DeChambeau7th4th
Byeong Hun An8th56th
Patrick Reed9th15th
Vaughn Taylor10th67th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Vaughn Taylor10th67th(+57)
Sung Kang65th9th(56)
Hideki Matsuyama2nd56th(+54)
Byeong Hun An8th56th(+48)
Wyndham Clark23rd68th(+45)
Brooks Koepka4th47th(+43)
Abraham Ancer14th56th(+42)
Danny Lee45th5th(40)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout58th18th(40)
Collin Morikawa47th9th(38)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

The venue

This event was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard in 2019-2020?

Tyrrell Hatton won the 2019-2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, finishing 4 under par.

Where was the 2019-2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard played?

The 2019-2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, starting 5 March 2020.

What was the winning score at the 2019-2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?

The winning score was 4 under par (284 strokes), posted by Tyrrell Hatton.

How many players were in the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard field?

123 players started the 2019-2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the PGA Tour's own published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where the tour published no value, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.