OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2020-2021

Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard

2021-03-04 · Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge

Winner
Bryson DeChambeau
Winning score
-11
Field
119
Field strength
+0.27 SG

The 2020-2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, starting 4 March 2021. Bryson DeChambeau won at 11 under par (277), 1 stroke ahead of Lee Westwood. The winning card was 67, 71, 68 and 71, and the win paid $1,674,000. Lee Westwood finished second, and Corey Conners was third. 119 players started the event. The field averaged +0.27 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 88% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the PGA Tour's published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 119. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 72 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Cgrade
Rank correlation
+0.300
Top-20 hit rate
40%
Top-10 avg model rank
28.1

Grade is this event’s percentile (52nd) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Rory McIlroy1st10th
Tyrrell Hatton2nd21st
Bryson DeChambeau3rd1st
Matt Fitzpatrick4th10th
Hideki Matsuyama5th18th
Sungjae Im6th21st
Harris English7th26th
Viktor Hovland8th49th
Jason Kokrak9th8th
Paul Casey10th10th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Andrew Putnam63rd4th(59)
Rickie Fowler18th72nd(+54)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout58th7th(51)
Lee Westwood45th2nd(43)
Viktor Hovland8th49th(+41)
Will Zalatoris49th10th(39)
Brendon Todd19th57th(+38)
Russell Knox32nd70th(+38)
Bernd Wiesberger69th31st(38)
Steve Stricker26th63rd(+37)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

The venue

This event was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard in 2020-2021?

Bryson DeChambeau won the 2020-2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, finishing 11 under par.

Where was the 2020-2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard played?

The 2020-2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, starting 4 March 2021.

What was the winning score at the 2020-2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?

The winning score was 11 under par (277 strokes), posted by Bryson DeChambeau.

How many players were in the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard field?

119 players started the 2020-2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the PGA Tour's own published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where the tour published no value, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.