OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2021-2022

Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard

2022-03-03 · Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge

Winner
Scottie Scheffler
Winning score
-5
Field
122
Field strength
+0.361 SG

The 2021-2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, starting 3 March 2022. Scottie Scheffler won at 5 under par (283), 1 stroke ahead of Billy Horschel. The winning card was 70, 73, 68 and 72, and the win paid $2,160,000. Billy Horschel, Tyrrell Hatton and Viktor Hovland tied for second. 122 players started the event. The field averaged +0.361 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 84% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the PGA Tour's published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 122. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 77 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Bgrade
Rank correlation
+0.415
Top-20 hit rate
70%
Top-10 avg model rank
20.5

Grade is this event’s percentile (84th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Jon Rahm1st17th
Rory McIlroy2nd13th
Scottie Scheffler3rd1st
Viktor Hovland4th2nd
Will Zalatoris5th38th
Hideki Matsuyama6th20th
Sungjae Im7th20th
Paul Casey8th72nd
Tyrrell Hatton9th2nd
Russell Henley10th13th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Lucas Herbert74th7th(67)
Paul Casey8th72nd(+64)
Graeme McDowell70th13th(57)
Nick Watney77th20th(57)
Maverick McNealy23rd73rd(+50)
David Lipsky71st26th(45)
Beau Hossler64th20th(44)
Thomas Pieters75th32nd(43)
Lucas Glover33rd74th(+41)
Marc Leishman28th68th(+40)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

The venue

This event was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard in 2021-2022?

Scottie Scheffler won the 2021-2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, finishing 5 under par.

Where was the 2021-2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard played?

The 2021-2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, starting 3 March 2022.

What was the winning score at the 2021-2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?

The winning score was 5 under par (283 strokes), posted by Scottie Scheffler.

How many players were in the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard field?

122 players started the 2021-2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the PGA Tour's own published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where the tour published no value, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.