OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2022-2023

Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard

2023-03-02 · Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge

Winner
Kurt Kitayama
Winning score
-9
Field
119
Field strength
+0.474 SG

The 2022-2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, starting 2 March 2023. Kurt Kitayama won at 9 under par (279), 1 stroke ahead of Harris English. The winning card was 67, 68, 72 and 72, and the win paid $3,600,000. Harris English and Rory McIlroy tied for second. 119 players started the event. The field averaged +0.474 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 89% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the PGA Tour's published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 119. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 72 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Bgrade
Rank correlation
+0.359
Top-20 hit rate
50%
Top-10 avg model rank
21.2

Grade is this event’s percentile (73rd) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Rory McIlroy1st2nd
Scottie Scheffler2nd4th
Patrick Cantlay3rd4th
Sungjae Im4th21st
Xander Schauffele5th39th
Justin Thomas6th21st
Matt Fitzpatrick7th14th
Tony Finau8th24th
Jon Rahm9th39th
Will Zalatoris10th53rd

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Pierceson Coody68th14th(54)
Ryan Fox67th14th(53)
Shane Lowry15th67th(+52)
Trey Mullinax60th8th(52)
Seamus Power22nd72nd(+50)
Ludvig Åberg71st24th(47)
Will Zalatoris10th53rd(+43)
Tommy Fleetwood19th61st(+42)
Francesco Molinari55th14th(41)
Kurt Kitayama41st1st(40)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

The venue

This event was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard in 2022-2023?

Kurt Kitayama won the 2022-2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, finishing 9 under par.

Where was the 2022-2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard played?

The 2022-2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, starting 2 March 2023.

What was the winning score at the 2022-2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?

The winning score was 9 under par (279 strokes), posted by Kurt Kitayama.

How many players were in the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard field?

119 players started the 2022-2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the PGA Tour's own published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where the tour published no value, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.