OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2025

Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard

2025-03-06 · Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge

Winner
Russell Henley
Winning score
-11
Field
72
Field strength
+0.384 SG

The 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, starting 6 March 2025. Russell Henley won at 11 under par (277), 1 stroke ahead of Collin Morikawa. The winning card was 72, 68, 67 and 70, and the win paid $4,000,000. Collin Morikawa finished second, and Corey Conners was third. 72 players started the event. The field averaged +0.384 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 96% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the PGA Tour's published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 72. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 51 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Cgrade
Rank correlation
+0.310
Top-20 hit rate
55%
Top-10 avg model rank
24.5

Grade is this event’s percentile (57th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Scottie Scheffler1st11th
Xander Schauffele2nd40th
Rory McIlroy3rd15th
Collin Morikawa4th2nd
Tommy Fleetwood5th11th
Ludvig Åberg6th22nd
Hideki Matsuyama7th22nd
Russell Henley8th1st
Patrick Cantlay9th31st
Sungjae Im10th19th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Xander Schauffele2nd40th(+38)
Justin Rose43rd8th(35)
Byeong Hun An41st8th(33)
Ben Griffin15th45th(+30)
Sam Burns18th48th(+30)
Sepp Straka33rd5th(28)
Justin Thomas11th36th(+25)
Mackenzie Hughes47th22nd(25)
Patrick Rodgers46th22nd(24)
Adam Scott13th36th(+23)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

The venue

This event was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard in 2025?

Russell Henley won the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, finishing 11 under par.

Where was the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard played?

The 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, starting 6 March 2025.

What was the winning score at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?

The winning score was 11 under par (277 strokes), posted by Russell Henley.

How many players were in the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard field?

72 players started the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the PGA Tour's own published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where the tour published no value, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.