OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2025

The Sentry

2025-01-02 · Plantation Course at Kapalua

Winner
Hideki Matsuyama
Winning score
-35
Field
59
Field strength
+0.306 SG

The 2025 The Sentry was played at Plantation Course at Kapalua, starting 2 January 2025. Hideki Matsuyama won at 35 under par (257), 3 strokes ahead of Collin Morikawa. The winning card was 65, 65, 62 and 65, and the win paid $3,600,000. Collin Morikawa finished second, and Sungjae Im was third. 59 players started the event. The field averaged +0.306 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 97% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the PGA Tour's published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 59. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 58 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Agrade
Rank correlation
+0.455
Top-20 hit rate
50%
Top-10 avg model rank
17.6

Grade is this event’s percentile (92nd) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Xander Schauffele1st30th
Collin Morikawa2nd2nd
Ludvig Åberg3rd5th
Hideki Matsuyama4th1st
Sungjae Im5th3rd
Justin Thomas6th26th
Patrick Cantlay7th15th
Russell Henley8th30th
Corey Conners9th5th
Adam Scott10th15th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Brian Harman15th58th(+43)
Thomas Detry47th5th(42)
Cam Davis53rd13th(40)
Cameron Young43rd8th(35)
Jhonattan Vegas37th4th(33)
Tom Hoge39th8th(31)
Xander Schauffele1st30th(+29)
Billy Horschel24th51st(+27)
Eric Cole25th52nd(+27)
Viktor Hovland11th36th(+25)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

The venue

This event was played at Plantation Course at Kapalua in Kapalua, Maui, Hawaii, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the The Sentry in 2025?

Hideki Matsuyama won the 2025 The Sentry at Plantation Course at Kapalua, finishing 35 under par.

Where was the 2025 The Sentry played?

The 2025 The Sentry was played at Plantation Course at Kapalua, starting 2 January 2025.

What was the winning score at the 2025 The Sentry?

The winning score was 35 under par (257 strokes), posted by Hideki Matsuyama.

How many players were in the The Sentry field?

59 players started the 2025 The Sentry. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the PGA Tour's own published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where the tour published no value, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.