OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2026

Valspar Championship

2026-03-19 · Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club - Copperhead Course

Winner
Matt Fitzpatrick
Winning score
-11
Field
133
Field strength
-0.025 SG

The 2026 Valspar Championship was played at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club - Copperhead Course, starting 19 March 2026. Matt Fitzpatrick won at 11 under par (273), 1 stroke ahead of David Lipsky. The winning card was 68, 69, 68 and 68, and the win paid $1,638,000. David Lipsky finished second, and Jordan Smith was third. 133 players started the event. The field averaged -0.025 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 86% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the PGA Tour's published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 133. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 73 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Fgrade
Rank correlation
+0.048
Top-20 hit rate
35%
Top-10 avg model rank
30.6

Grade is this event’s percentile (4th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Patrick Cantlay1st7th
Corey Conners2nd14th
Xander Schauffele3rd4th
Justin Thomas4th30th
Keegan Bradley5th55th
Jacob Bridgeman6th14th
Jordan Spieth7th11th
Matt Fitzpatrick8th1st
Ricky Castillo9th46th
Davis Thompson10th46th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Kevin Roy11th73rd(+62)
Bud Cauley13th74th(+61)
Marco Penge65th4th(61)
Matthieu Pavon67th11th(56)
Hank Lebioda69th14th(55)
Jordan Smith56th3rd(53)
Keegan Bradley5th55th(+50)
Chandler Blanchet66th18th(48)
Adrien Dumont de Chassart73rd26th(47)
David Lipsky46th2nd(44)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

The venue

This event was played at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club - Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor, Florida, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the Valspar Championship in 2026?

Matt Fitzpatrick won the 2026 Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club - Copperhead Course, finishing 11 under par.

Where was the 2026 Valspar Championship played?

The 2026 Valspar Championship was played at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club - Copperhead Course, starting 19 March 2026.

What was the winning score at the 2026 Valspar Championship?

The winning score was 11 under par (273 strokes), posted by Matt Fitzpatrick.

How many players were in the Valspar Championship field?

133 players started the 2026 Valspar Championship. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the PGA Tour's own published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where the tour published no value, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.